Iraq

Written by Vincent Cable MP and published in Informer on Thu 16th Jan 2003

Discussions in parliament on many topical issues is currently blighted by preoccupation with a war in Iraq.

A war may, of course, never happen but the odds on action are shortening. I have tried to keep an open mind.

I am not a pacifist and have supported recent British military intervention in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Sierra Leone and, earlier, in the Falklands.

A fully convincing case for war may still be made, following clear findings from the UN weapons inspectors and the further endorsement of the United Nations. But that now seems unlikely.

I increasingly feel that this war is misconceived and that the Prime Minister and the Americans are wrong.

Saddam Hussein is a thoroughly evil dictator. But he was evil when Britain cultivated him and sold him armaments. We knew at the time that he had used chemical weapons (against Iranian forces as well as Kurds).

There are probably 20 other dictators in Africa, the Middle East and Asia as bad or worse and we are not invading them.

We have no satisfactory evidence that he is capable of attacking Europe or the US with missiles armed with nuclear or comparable weapons or would have any motive for doing so, unless attacked.

Despite attempts to establish a link with al-Qaida none has been found. Indeed like comparable dictators in Syria, Algeria and Libya, Saddam has brutally suppressed Islamic fundamentalists.

Even if it succeeded militarily, an invasion would generate a legacy of instability and anti Western hatred in the Middle East especially if the Israel-Palestine dispute remains unresolved.

I give a lecture this week to the military staff college on the economic aspects of a war. I shall warn that there are serious potential dangers for the world economy, especially if a war is messy and prolonged.